Friday, August 10, 2007

Geopolitical Diary: A Safe Sign of Saudi Displeasure

from Stratfor

Despite Riyadh's regional status as the pre-eminent Sunni Arab power, in the Saudi mind, sharing influence over Iraq's Sunnis with Damascus amounts to rubbing salt on an open Saudi wound. Riyadh already is scared to death about the threat from an emergent Iran and Tehran's Arab Shiite allies, especially because the Saudis have little to no faith in the U.S. ability to provide for their national security ... The Saudis, who have some pull with certain Sunni tribes and political groups, find themselves unable to play the kind of role in the making of a post-Baathist Iraqi republic that would allow them to contain the Iranians and Tehran's Shiite allies. Sure, Riyadh could continue to unleash jihadists, but this is not an altogether safe option. In addition to potentially causing problems when those jihadists come home, Riyadh knows full well that this tactic will earn it no points with the Americans (or anyone else). It would bring the Saudis attention, but it would not help them gain anything concrete. For now, this tool bears a cost they are not willing to incur.

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